Grounded in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 4 (SDG4), specifically addressing the urgent need to increase relevant skills for decent work (Target 4.4) while ensuring inclusive access and quality (Targets 4.3, 4.5, 4.c), this study develops a province-level indicator system for the “talent chain” and “industry chain” and integrates entropy-weighted composite evaluation, a coupling coordination model, correlation tests, and mismatch typology classification to systematically assess the alignment between higher education talent formation and industrial demand across 31 Chinese provinces during 2000–2022. The analysis aims to characterize China’s phase-specific progress in SDG4-consistent development at the education–industry interface and to provide a theoretical and empirical basis for improving graduate job matching. The results show that (1) overall talent–industry matching improved steadily from 2000 to 2022, yet pronounced regional disparities persist, with eastern provinces generally outperforming central and western regions; (2) educational quality and structural inputs—such as faculty capacity, per-student expenditure, and the composition of human capital—are the primary drivers of talent-chain performance, whereas expansion-oriented indicators exhibit limited marginal contributions, implying that sustainable graduate job matching hinges more on quality upgrading and supply-structure optimization than on quantitative expansion alone; (3) industry-chain advancement is jointly driven by industrial scale, structural upgrading, and employment absorptive capacity, with the tertiary sector playing a particularly prominent role in shaping demand for higher-skilled labor; and (4) a divergence in driving mechanisms—quality- and structure-oriented on the education side versus scale- and structure-oriented on the industry side—combined with regional heterogeneity produces stage-specific mismatch typologies, suggesting remaining scope for structural alignment between higher education systems and industrial upgrading. Overall, strengthening regional coordination, integration, quality, and upgrading drives synergistic development, advancing SDG 4 targets by validating that quality-driven education reform is the key lever for sustainable employment in China. © 2026 by the authors.
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