Background: Commercial apprenticeship is the most commonly chosen type of apprenticeship within vocational education training in Switzerland. Both the Swiss economy and the training companies themselves benefit when apprentices remain within the occupation and company after their vocational education and training has ended. However, little is known about commercial apprentices’ intention to remain and its development. The literature discusses learning motivation and (apprenticeship) satisfaction as important factors in the development of the intention to remain from both a theoretical and an empirical perspective. We report the status quo of further educational and working intentions at the end of apprenticeship training and interdependency of the remaining intention’s, learning motivation’s and training satisfaction’s development. To do so, we propose a cross-lagged structural equation model that examines the con-structs’ autoregressive paths but also causal effects on each other over time. Methods: We present empirical data gathered in a representative sample of 83 classes (n = 1905) of commercial apprentices of both the E-and M-Profile in German-speaking regions of Switzerland. The apprentices participated in the standardized survey four times in total: at the beginning, at a halfway point during their apprenticeship, half a year before final examinations and two to three months before termination. Hypotheses were tested using descriptive methods as well as latent state models and a cross-lagged structural equation model. Results and conclusions: It was found that a majority of commercial apprentices intend to remain within the learned profession after graduation (57.7%). However, one in five apprentices does not have such intentions, and one in four apprentices is still undecided. Slightly less than 60% of apprentices had a follow-up solution after finishing their training and more than 80% of them planned to remain employed within their training company. Despite their follow-up positions, commercial apprentices tend to continue their education. Only 6% of the apprentices denied having any further educational intention within the next five years. With regard to the intention to remain within the learned occupation, training satisfaction was found to be an important factor. The intention to remain within the occupation also increases training satisfaction. Although learning motivation does not seem to directly affect the intention to remain within the learned occupation, it nevertheless affects training satisfaction positively. For policy-makers, teachers, trainers and educators, it is important to understand the factors that positively contribute to the intention to remain within the learned profession. Therefore, the current study can be considered a starting point. However, more research is needed. © The Author(s) 2016.
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