This study examines the impact of increased access to higher education on wages, employment, and labor market structure by analyzing establishment-level data. I focus on the quasi-experimental increase in the number of universities and universities of applied sciences in Bavaria since the 1970s and establishment of such higher education institutes under the “Future of Bavaria Offensive” program in the 1990s. I use administrative establishment-level data and find a positive but statistically insignificant effect on median wages resulting from expansion of higher education. While there is a negative but insignificant impact on wages of highly skilled workers, those without an academic or vocational degree experience an increase in wages. I also find that training activities decline immediately after the establishment of a new higher education institution. Further empirical analyses indicate that this decline is not due to fewer slots in apprenticeship training, but rather to a larger number of vacant slots and a higher probability of having vacant slots in apprenticeship training. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2025.
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