Purpose – This study examines the variables associated with the likelihood of horizontal mismatch among Chilean university graduates, focusing on the role of field of study, university prestige and gender. Design/methodology/approach – A binary logistic regression model was estimated using data from a survey conducted on a representative sample of 951 graduates from 17 universities. The selected universities were requested to provide the academic records of their graduates corresponding to the 2015, 2016 and 2017 cohorts (56, 168). Findings – The results indicate that graduates in fields such as business and management, arts and humanities, social sciences and STEM face a higher risk of horizontal mismatch. Gender and institutional prestige, on the other hand, showed no significant association. These findings suggest that horizontal mismatch is linked not only to individual differences in the type of human capital acquired but also to structural imbalances between educational offerings and labor market demands. Originality/value – This study provides original insights into horizontal mismatch in an emerging economy, adding to the limited understanding of mismatch drivers in developing countries and offering implications for educational and labor policy design. © 2025 Emerald Publishing Limited
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