Automation risks of vocational training programs and early careers in the Netherlands

Abstract

In this article, we study the role of automation risks in the school-to-work transition (STWT) of secondary vocational education (VET) graduates in the Netherlands. We use a combination of administrative and survey data, enriched with estimates of automation risks. Using sequence analysis, we find four ideal-type school-to-work trajectories representing the first 10 years in the labor market: employment, further education, further VET, and NEET. Multinomial regressions show that automation risk is not consistently associated with the type of school-to-work trajectory. We also investigate the relation between automation risk and starting wages and wage growth. We find that automation risk is negatively associated with starting wages, but not with wage growth. © The Author(s) 2024.

Keywords

Author Keywords

vocational education and training School-to-work transition Automation sequence analysis wage growth

Index Keywords

Author Affiliations

Maastricht University School of Business and Economics, Maastricht, Netherlands

Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin fur Sozialforschung, Berlin, Berlin, Germany, Maastricht University School of Business and Economics, Maastricht, Netherlands

Maastricht University School of Business and Economics, Maastricht, Netherlands, IZA, Magdeburg, Germany

Maastricht University School of Business and Economics, Maastricht, Netherlands, IZA, Magdeburg, Germany, Network for Studies on Pensions, Aging and Retirement, Tilburg, Noord-Brabant, Netherlands

Funding & Acknowledgements

Horizon 2020

Grant: 822330

The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This article has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Grant Agreement No. 822330 \u201CTECHNEQUALITY. Technological inequality\u2014understanding the relation between recent technological innovations and social inequalities\u201D and the NWO's Research program Open Research Area Plus under the file number 464-15-186 \u201CUnderstanding NEETS. Individual and institutional determinants of youth inactivity in France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, and the UK.\u201D

Horizon 2020

The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This article has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Grant Agreement No. 822330 \u201CTECHNEQUALITY. Technological inequality\u2014understanding the relation between recent technological innovations and social inequalities\u201D and the NWO's Research program Open Research Area Plus under the file number 464-15-186 \u201CUnderstanding NEETS. Individual and institutional determinants of youth inactivity in France, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, and the UK.\u201D

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Automation risks of vocational training programs and early careers in the Netherlands

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