The purpose of this paper is to explore the future of work by asking the question, ‘is technology a substitute for labour supply?’ Using New Zealand as a case study, a scenario planning methodology was adopted that engaged with leading tourism stakeholders, as part of an Industry Transformation Plan (ITP) process. Four scenarios were constructed, as follows. Scenario 1: Robbie the Chef represents a world without human chefs, where production robots run the kitchen. Scenario 2: West World Holiday Park portrays a popular tourist attraction, offering indulgent experiences shaped by advanced robots. Scenario 3: Weekends Only is a scenario about tourism businesses’ constant struggle for labour, resulting in a smaller but more professional industry. Scenario 4: The Day We Ran Out of Chefs depicts the situation when tourism and hospitality become unsustainable because of labour shortages. The paper concludes with a conceptual framework, capturing the essences of the scenarios which advocates four modes of technological substitution for labour: replacement (full scale replacement occurs as machines are so advanced); experiences (technology creates new experiences); argumentation (applications of technology boost the productivity of workers); and redesign (the production of tourism is redesigned through technology to reduce costs). © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.
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