Discontinuities in vocational education and training: the influence of early-risk factors and personality constructs on premature training termination and subsequent trajectories

Abstract

Background: For adolescents, preventing a premature training termination (PTT) and withdrawal from education and training after a PTT is an important societal task. While studies reveal that early-risk factors such as a low educational background or selected personality constructs are relevant for predicting PTT, less is known about subsequent trajectories after a PTT and the factors that determine them. Methods: Using data from the German National Educational Panel Study, we examine the influence of early-risk factors and personality constructs on the first PTT (n = 4892) in the training course using a binomial logistic regression model. In a second step, by using a sequence and cluster analysis we explore subsequent trajectory patterns within 24 months after PTT (n = 944) and analyze the influence of early-risk factors and personality constructs on subsequent trajectory clusters after PTT. Results: We identify 7 different trajectory clusters, of which three clusters show risk-related trajectories (37.0%) with tendencies to withdraw from education and training. Furthermore, our analysis confirms the relevance of early-risk factors for predicting PTT as well as trajectories after PTT: a low educational qualification, graduation after more than the typical number of years, and low parental education increase the probability of discontinuities in adolescents’ educational and training paths. Additionally, it is important to consider the influence of personality traits on the subsequent trajectories: adolescents with strong openness tend to have continued school attendance after PTT, indicating a constructive career adaptation process, while adolescents with strong self-efficacy seem to assess their chances in the labor market as positive even without a vocational qualification. Conclusions: The longitudinal perspective on the consequences of a first termination of a VET program revealed that educational trajectories after a PTT are highly heterogeneous indicating the need for different types of policy measures to minimize the incidence of PTT and withdrawing from education and training. © 2022, The Author(s).

Keywords

Author Keywords

vocational education and training Educational background Sequence and cluster analysis Big Five Early-risk factors Premature training termination Social and migration background Trajectories after a premature training termination Withdrawal from education and training

Index Keywords

Author Affiliations

Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Gottingen, Niedersachsen, Germany

Funding & Acknowledgements

Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, BMBF

Funding text 1: This paper uses data from the National Educational Panel Study (NEPS): Starting Cohort Grade 9 https://doi.org/10.5157/NEPS:SC4:11.0.0 . From 2008 to 2013, NEPS data was collected as part of the Framework Program for the Promotion of Empirical Educational Research funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). As of 2014, NEPS has been carried out by the Leibniz Institute for Educational Trajectories (LIfBi) at the University of Bamberg in cooperation with a nationwide network.; Funding text 2: This paper uses data from the National Educational Panel Study (NEPS): Starting Cohort Grade 9 https://doi.org/10.5157/NEPS:SC4:11.0.0. From 2008 to 2013, NEPS data was collected as part of the Framework Program for the Promotion of Empirical Educational Research funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). As of 2014, NEPS has been carried out by the Leibniz Institute for Educational Trajectories (LIfBi) at the University of Bamberg in cooperation with a nationwide network. We thank the two anonymous reviewers for their careful reading of our manuscript and their many insightful comments and suggestions.

Leibniz-Institut für Bildungsverläufe, LIfBi

Funding text 1: This paper uses data from the National Educational Panel Study (NEPS): Starting Cohort Grade 9 https://doi.org/10.5157/NEPS:SC4:11.0.0 . From 2008 to 2013, NEPS data was collected as part of the Framework Program for the Promotion of Empirical Educational Research funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). As of 2014, NEPS has been carried out by the Leibniz Institute for Educational Trajectories (LIfBi) at the University of Bamberg in cooperation with a nationwide network.; Funding text 2: This paper uses data from the National Educational Panel Study (NEPS): Starting Cohort Grade 9 https://doi.org/10.5157/NEPS:SC4:11.0.0. From 2008 to 2013, NEPS data was collected as part of the Framework Program for the Promotion of Empirical Educational Research funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). As of 2014, NEPS has been carried out by the Leibniz Institute for Educational Trajectories (LIfBi) at the University of Bamberg in cooperation with a nationwide network. We thank the two anonymous reviewers for their careful reading of our manuscript and their many insightful comments and suggestions.

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Discontinuities in vocational education and training: the influence of early-risk factors and personality constructs on premature training termination and subsequent trajectories

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