“You can't always get what you want”: Prevalence, magnitude, and predictors of the aspiration–attainment gap after the school-to-work transition

Abstract

This study examined the prevalence, magnitude, and predictors of the aspiration–attainment gap (AAG) after the school-to-work transition. We operationalized the AAG as the discrepancy between the socioeconomic status (SES) of young people's realistic occupational aspirations and that of the position they actually attained. As a case in point, we investigated non-college-bound students transitioning into a vocational education and training (VET) position in Germany. Our aims were twofold: first, to establish how many students experience an AAG of what size; second, to identify characteristics that predict whether students experience an AAG. We considered sociostructural characteristics, cognitive ability and school grades, and Big Five personality traits as predictors (i.e., potential determinants) of the AAG. Analyses in a representative sample (N = 2,478) of intermediate secondary school (Realschule) students/graduates from the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS; Starting Cohort 4) revealed that 45.9% of students experienced an AAG. Two-part regression models showed that the level of aspirations was the strongest predictor of the experience and size of an AAG, followed by school grades. Aspirations also mediated the effects of several other predictors, most importantly parental SES and school grades. Parental SES, female gender, and Emotional Stability had contradictory effects: They indirectly increased the risk of experiencing an AAG by raising aspirations, but at the same time they lowered this risk by directly increasing attainment. Overall, our results suggest that the AAG during the transition from school to VET is a widespread experience among students in Germany that is worthy of further investigation. © 2022 The Author(s)

Keywords

Author Keywords

Attainment vocational education and training (VET) School-to-work transition aspirations

Index Keywords

Author Affiliations

Universität Siegen, Siegen, Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany, Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training, Bonn, Germany

Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences GESIS, Mannheim, Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany

University College London, London, United Kingdom

Funding & Acknowledgements

UK Research and Innovation, UKRI

Funding text 1: This work was supported by a grant from the Netzwerk Bildungsforschung of the Baden-W\u00FCrttemberg Stiftung [grant number AZ 1.15304.00 \u2013 PASS]. This work was supported by a grant from the Netzwerk Bildungsforschung of the Baden-W\u00FCrttemberg Stiftung [grant number AZ 1.15304.00 \u2013 PASS] to Alexandra Wicht, D\u00E9sir\u00E9e Nie\u00DFen, and Clemens Lechner. Ingrid Schoon received funding from the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) [grant number ES/V01577X/1]. The publication of this article was funded by the Open Access Fund of the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training, Germany.; Funding text 2: This work was supported by a grant from the Netzwerk Bildungsforschung of the Baden-W\u00FCrttemberg Stiftung [grant number AZ 1.15304.00 \u2013 PASS].; Funding text 3: This work was supported by a grant from the Netzwerk Bildungsforschung of the Baden-W\u00FCrttemberg Stiftung [grant number AZ 1.15304.00 \u2013 PASS] to Alexandra Wicht, D\u00E9sir\u00E9e Nie\u00DFen, and Clemens Lechner. Ingrid Schoon received funding from the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) [grant number ES/V01577X/1]. The publication of this article was funded by the Open Access Fund of the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training, Germany.

Economic and Social Research Council, ESRC

Grant: ES/V01577X/1

Funding text 1: This work was supported by a grant from the Netzwerk Bildungsforschung of the Baden-W\u00FCrttemberg Stiftung [grant number AZ 1.15304.00 \u2013 PASS]. This work was supported by a grant from the Netzwerk Bildungsforschung of the Baden-W\u00FCrttemberg Stiftung [grant number AZ 1.15304.00 \u2013 PASS] to Alexandra Wicht, D\u00E9sir\u00E9e Nie\u00DFen, and Clemens Lechner. Ingrid Schoon received funding from the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) [grant number ES/V01577X/1]. The publication of this article was funded by the Open Access Fund of the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training, Germany.; Funding text 2: This work was supported by a grant from the Netzwerk Bildungsforschung of the Baden-W\u00FCrttemberg Stiftung [grant number AZ 1.15304.00 \u2013 PASS].; Funding text 3: This work was supported by a grant from the Netzwerk Bildungsforschung of the Baden-W\u00FCrttemberg Stiftung [grant number AZ 1.15304.00 \u2013 PASS] to Alexandra Wicht, D\u00E9sir\u00E9e Nie\u00DFen, and Clemens Lechner. Ingrid Schoon received funding from the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) [grant number ES/V01577X/1]. The publication of this article was funded by the Open Access Fund of the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training, Germany.

Grant: AZ 1.15304.00 – PASS

Funding text 1: This work was supported by a grant from the Netzwerk Bildungsforschung of the Baden-W\u00FCrttemberg Stiftung [grant number AZ 1.15304.00 \u2013 PASS]. This work was supported by a grant from the Netzwerk Bildungsforschung of the Baden-W\u00FCrttemberg Stiftung [grant number AZ 1.15304.00 \u2013 PASS] to Alexandra Wicht, D\u00E9sir\u00E9e Nie\u00DFen, and Clemens Lechner. Ingrid Schoon received funding from the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) [grant number ES/V01577X/1]. The publication of this article was funded by the Open Access Fund of the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training, Germany.; Funding text 2: This work was supported by a grant from the Netzwerk Bildungsforschung of the Baden-W\u00FCrttemberg Stiftung [grant number AZ 1.15304.00 \u2013 PASS].; Funding text 3: This work was supported by a grant from the Netzwerk Bildungsforschung of the Baden-W\u00FCrttemberg Stiftung [grant number AZ 1.15304.00 \u2013 PASS] to Alexandra Wicht, D\u00E9sir\u00E9e Nie\u00DFen, and Clemens Lechner. Ingrid Schoon received funding from the UK Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) [grant number ES/V01577X/1]. The publication of this article was funded by the Open Access Fund of the Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training, Germany.

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“You can't always get what you want”: Prevalence, magnitude, and predictors of the aspiration–attainment gap after the school-to-work transition

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