This article will analyse the rather uniform ways in which developed countries, and notably those of Europe, have moved from systems in which tiny numbers of young people attended university to systems of mass and still expanding higher education. Although there are some surface differences between countries in organisation and levels of participation, these have actually decreased in recent decades, and convergence is continuing. This convergence reflects a general move towards a dominant model of tertiary education which gives priority and prestige to academic certification. The economic and policy drivers have been very similar. In the first instance, a changing labour market and growing middle class expanded demand for tertiary provision. Governments then became convinced that expanding higher education was an effective supply-side policy to promote growth and productivity, and an effective way to promote social mobility and equality; and so educational expansion and spending were privileged. However, in recent years, there has been a growing mismatch between the labour market and tertiary provision, which it is very hard to correct, partly because of politicians' beliefs but also because the 'signalling' function of academic education has become paramount, and families quite rationally pursue high-prestige (but zero-sum) options for their children. Although there may be some degree of self-correction in the system, this is by no means assured and governments need to consider, actively, how to promote attractive alternatives to university study. © 2020 Academia Europaea.
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